The Davefather vs. The Oscars: Part 2 Who WILL Win

OK you have seen who I think should win the Oscars at this years Academy Awards, now its is time to make my actual predictions as to who will actually win the Oscars this year.  So I will list who is nominated in each category and than I will tell you who I think will win and why I believe that.  If you are wondering how well I do at this predictions, I generally score about 70% or so.  So take what I say with a grain a salt and do some research yourself if you are actually dropping money on these things.   So lets do it

BEST PICTURE 

“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Whiplash”

Who Will Win : Birdman 

Well this is the tightest race for Best Picture we have seen in some time.  It seemed like Boyhood had everything all locked up, the second it premiered and it went through almost the entire race as the front runner.  Than the guilds started announcing their winners and Birdman kept winning all the awards!  So there is no question it is between Birdman and Boyhood, the other nominees are not winning period.  Many are predicting a split between Director and Picture and I am gonna do the same, even though the DGA went to Birdman, I think the Oscars will flip that and Birdman will take the top prize.

 

BEST ACTOR 

Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

Who Will Win : Eddie Redmayne * The Theory of Everything

This is another one that is actually really tight and comes down to two names.  Michael Keaton was the early favorite and their are many who are picking a Birdman clean sweep and think Keaton will still be taking this awards.  However Redmayne won the SAG and the Globe and you have to figure that at least puts him slightly above Keaton for the win here.  I am not going with the Birdman clean sweep here and I think that the Academy will reward Eddie Redmayne for his brilliant work as Stephan Hawkins.

 

BEST ACTRESS 

Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

Who Will Win : Julianne Moore * Still Alice 

Unless the Academy wants to shock us the way the early critics awards did and give this award to Cotillard, I don’t seen anyone beating Moore at this point.  It seemed like they just wanted to give Moore the award no matter what this year.  It all started with A Map to the Stars screened and everyone said Moore is winning period.  Than that movie got pushed back to next year and everyone just changed their focus to Still Alice.  Bottom line is they want to give this award to Moore and nothing is going to stop them.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Robert Duvall, “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

Who Will Win : J.K. Simmons * Whiplash 

Sorry to the other 4 nominees here but you need not worry about writing an acceptance speech, cause J.K Simmons has this in the bag.  Sometimes a performance truly is that good and you know right away that, this is going to be the winner and with Simmons work in Whiplash is one of those performances. He has won every single award there is to win and he will be adding Oscar to that list come Sunday.  Biggest lock of the entire awards.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Laura Dern, “Wild”
Emma Stone, “Birdman”
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”
Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods”

Who Will Win: Patricia Arquette * Boyhood 

While Simmons may be the biggest lock this year, Arquette is the second biggest lock I would say.  Since Boyhood first screened Arquette has been considered the front runner and absolutely nothing has come close to changing that since.  Even if the academy truly hates Boyhood, Arquette is the guarantee it doesn’t go home empty handed.  Anyone else winning this would be one of the biggest shocks of the year.

 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Alejandro González Iñárritu, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Morten Tyldum, “The Imitation Game”

Who Will Win : Richard Linklater * Boyhood 

This is the one that I feel the least confident in predicting.  Logic would say that DGA winner Iñárritu will be the winner here and I am tempted to agree.  However I am predicting that we will have a director/ picture split and I am in the thinking that Birdman is gonna take Picture, thus Boyhood takes director.  However I could be wrong and we could see a Birdman sweep and it take both awards.  It truly comes down to Linklater and Iñárritu and it is easily the most exciting race of the whole show.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

“Big Hero 6”
“The Boxtrolls”
“How to Train Your Dragon 2”
“Song of the Sea”
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya”

Who Will Win: Big Hero 6 

I know that many are predicting that How To Train Your Dragon 2 is going to win here, but I have bet against Disney before and ended up dead wrong.  I feel like the academy has a heavy Disney biased and I believe they will reward Big Hero 6 with the win here.

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Emmanuel Lubezki, “Birdman”
Robert D. Yeoman, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lynzewski, “Ida”
Dick Pope, “Mr. Turner”
Roger Deakins, “Unbroken” 

Who Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki * Birdman 

Here is another no brainier lock!  All of the films nominated have wonderful cinematography but Birdman is an example of excellence in the field.  It is one of the best pieces of cinematography of all time, literally making it a secondary character in the movie.  If Birdman loses here it would be a joke.  Not happening!

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

Milena Canonero, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Mark Bridges, “Inherent Vice”
Colleen Atwood, “Into the Woods”
Anna B. Sheppard, “Maleficent”
Jacqueline Durran, “Mr. Turner” 

Who Will Win: Milena Canonero * The Grand Budapest Hotel 

It is tempting to say that Budapest is a lock here but I am not sure that is actually the case.  I do believe it will win the award but I wouldn’t be surprised if either off the flashy work in Into the Woods and Maleficent took it.  And I wouldn’t be a total shocker if the duds in Mr. Turner won either.  Still my heart says that the flashy colors in Budapest will be taking this award at the end of the day.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 


“Citizenfour”
“Last Days in Vietnam”
“Virunga”
“The Salt of the Earth”
“Finding Vivian Maier” 

Who Will Win: Virunga 

Yup I am going against the grain on this one.  I know that everyone is thinking that Citizenfour is locked in to take this award and its a done deal.  Why am I no picking it, because this branch is FAMOUS for going against the locked in choice.  Virunga has been loved by all who have seen it and I think it has a real chance to cause an upset here.  I may be completely wrong here but hey I got no money riding on this so!

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT 

“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
“Joanna”
“Our Curse”
“The Reaper”
“White Earth”

Who Will Win : Crisis Hotline : Veterans Press 1 

My understand is that this is a close race between Press 1 and Joanna, with the predictors of the Oscars pretty much split down the middle on it.  Considering the amount of love that American Sniper got, I am thinking they will lean more in the way of the Veteran’s.  Its a toss up!

 

BEST FILM EDITING 

Joel Cox and Gary Roach, “American Sniper”
Sandra Adair, “Boyhood”
Barney Pilling, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
William Goldenberg, “The Imitation Game”
Tom Cross, “Whiplash”

Who Will Win: Sandra Adair * Boyhood 

I could see any of these films actually winning if the academy really wants to go against Boyhood.  But I find it hard to picture anyone who not recognizing the extreme work of brilliance that went into editing this film.  It was filmed over 12 years and was all about the attention to detail, to make sure the movie flowed correctly.  I just don’t see the Academy embarrassing themselves in that big a way.

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM 

“Ida”
“Leviathan”
“Tangerines”
“Wild Tales”
“Timbuktu”

Who Will Win:  Ida 

This is almost always the hardest of all the categories to pick the winner in.  When you think you have them figured out they just go and award a film nobody was predicting.  I have to believe that Ida is the front runner but I am truly not sure here.

 

BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIR STYLING 

 Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard, “Foxcatcher”
Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White, “Guardians of the Galaxy”

Who Will Win:  Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier * The Grand Budapest Hotel 

To many people seemed to be distracted by the fake nose in Foxcatcher and I imagine that some of the voters will feel the same way.  Guardians is to much of a mainstream commercial hit to win this.  Budapest is a clear favorite of the Academy this year and I am thinking they want to reward it were ever they can.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

Alexandre Desplat, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Alexandre Desplat, “The Imitation Game”
Hans Zimmer, “Interstellar”
Gary Yershon, “Mr Turner”
Jóhann Jóhannsson, “The Theory of Everything”

Who Will Win : Johann Johannsson * The Theory of Everything 

The generally feeling is that Everything’s score is the one to beat and I am not gonna disagree with that.  However keep an eye on Zimmer who is an Academy favorite and could just as easily pull out the win, for a big ambitious score.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

 “Everything Is Awesome” by Shawn Patterson, “The LEGO Movie”
“Glory” by Common and John Legend, “Selma”
“Grateful” by Diane Warren, “Beyond the Lights”
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond, “Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me”
“Lost Stars” by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois, “Begin Again”

Who Will Win: “Glory” by Common and John Legend * Selma 

A part of me wants to say that the Academy will just give in and give it to Everything is Awesome but I know that with all the backlash they are receiving for not giving enough nominations to Selma, they are gonna wanna at least give it this award to prove they are not racist old white guys.  Its a rap song so be careful but remember they rewarded Eminem and Three Six Mafia with Oscars before so this should be the third.

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Production design: Adam Stockhausen, Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“The Imitation Game,” Production design: Maria Djurkovic, Set Decoration: Tatiana Macdonald
“Interstellar,” Production design: Nathan Crowley, Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
“Into the Woods,” Production design: Dennis Gassner, Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Mr. Turner,” Production design: Suzie Davies, Set Decoration: Charlotte Watts 

Who Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Production design: Adam Stockhausen, Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock

Yup this is a lock.  Its signed, sealed and delivered!

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM 

“The Bigger Picture,” Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees
“The Dam Keeper,” Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi
“Feast,” Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed
“Me and My Moulton,” Torill Kove
“A Single Life,” Joris Oprins

Who Will Win: Feast 

Everyone seems to love this one.  I am not gonna pretend to have a clue about how these awards actually work so I am just going with what everyone else is saying.

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM 

“Aya,” Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis
“Boogaloo and Graham,” Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney
“Butter lamp,” Hu Wei and Julien Féret
“Parvaneh,” Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger
“The Phone Call,” Mat Kirkby and James Lucas

Who Will Win : The Phone Call 

I have absolutely NO IDEA!  I am literally just guessing here.

 

BEST SOUND EDITING 

“American Sniper,” Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
“Birdman,” Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock
“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies,” Brent Burge and Jason Canovas
“Interstellar,” Richard King
“Unbroken,” Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro

Who Will Win: Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman * American Sniper 

This could very well go to Birdman if the move sweeps but I am thinking that they are gonna wanna reward American Sniper with something and this would be the correct category to reward it.

 

BEST SOUND MIXING 

“American Sniper,” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
“Birdman,” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga
“Interstellar,” Garry A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten
“Unbroken,” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee
”Whiplash,” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley

Who Will Win : Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley * Whiplash 

Same as sound Editing, watch out of the Birdman sweep, but I am thinking they want to give Whiplash at least something to take home and J.K Simmons is seen more as a singular feat.

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

“Captain America: Winter Soldier,” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist
“Guardians of the Galaxy,” Stephanie Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould
“Interstellar,” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher
“X-Men: Days of Future Past,” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer

Who Will Win: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist  * Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 

Two way race here.  First was the favorite from the get go which was Interstellar, which seemed unstoppable at one point.  That is till Apes one the Effects guild award and became the new front runner.  Usually the guilds match here so I am going with Apes.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Jason Hall, “American Sniper”
Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Inherent Vice”
Anthony McCarten, “The Theory of Everything”
Damien Chazelle, “Whiplash”

Who Will Win : Graham Moore * The Imitation Game 

There was a lot of money spent trying to make The Imitation Game the front runner in this race.  It failed big time but I am sure they will at least give it something and this is about the only place that I can see that happening.  It won the WGA so it is looking likely.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

 Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, “Foxcatcher”
Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Dan Gilroy, “Nightcrawler”

Who Will Win : Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness * The Grand Budapest Hotel 

I mean the logically thinking here would be to pick either Birdman or Boyhood right.  I would have agreed that is until I saw the WGA which rewarded Budapest Hotel with the award.  It is no secret that they loved Budapest Hotel and I predict they will give it the writing award as a way to show that love.

About Dave Bril
I am just a simple man who loves to watch movies, be them good or bad, I just simply enjoy the thrill of watching a movie on the big screen.

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