The Davefather’s 2017 Oscar Predictions

So, we have approached that time of year again, where the Academy of Motion Pictures and Sciences, take away all the guess work and tell us who they are nominating for their Oscars this year.  This will of course the films of 2016(not a great year in cinema) , and will officially be announced early Tuesday morning Jan. 124th.  So, I will break down what I think will get nominated in every category that is broadcast on TV.  So, lets get to it.

 

BEST PICTURE

  • La La Land
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Moonlight
  • Arrival
  • Hidden Figures
  • Lion
  • Deadpool
  • Fences
  • Hell or High Water
  • Silence

So generally speaking, we see around 8 nominees in this category but I will pick the max 10 just in case. You can pretty be assured that La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight will be getting nominations here.  The 3 films have dominated every critics poll you look at and all 3 are sure to be hits with the voters.  Arrival made a lot of money, has academy darling Amy Adams as its star and is loved by most who see it, despite its science fiction plot.

Another Box office smash is Hidden Figures, which is an important film and has an all black female cast, which should score very well this year, after last years #Oscarsowhite.  If the academy really wants to reward box office smashes that they should be including Deadpool, at hit with audiences and critics alike, and it would mark the first ever Superhero movie to get a nomination.  It is hard to picture them leaving a Martin Scorsese movie off the list, but Silence’s long running length and overly preachy material could make it the first miss for Marty since Shutter Island.  Hell or High Water is seen as a major win and should find itself scoring well here and Fences has the benefit of being directed by Denzel Washington and having black cast but most of all being a very good film that the academy seems to love.  Lion seems like a lock at this point as it is getting a lot of love in all the right places.

So if it is only 8 nominees knock off Deadpool and Silence from here.

 

 

BEST ACTOR

  • Casey Affleck * Manchester by the Sea
  • Denzel Washington * Fences
  • Ryan Goslin * La La Land
  • Andrew Garfield * Hacksaw Ridge
  • Viggo Mortensen * Captain Fantastic

I feel strongly that the first 4 names mentioned here are absolute locks to get nominations.  Casey Affleck has won just about every award there is to win so far and Oscar nomination seems all but assured now.  Right on his tail has been Denzel Washington who gives the best performance of his career in Fences and would be an absolute outrage if he were to miss the ballot.  Ryan Goslin is in the beloved La La Land and I can’t see that film getting rewarded everywhere else and missing Best Actor.  From there things get a bit tricky.  Andrew Garfield gives two strong performances this year in Hacksaw Ridge and Silence.  It is possible he splits the vote on himself, but I am guessing he gets the 4th spot.  That leaves the up for grabs 5th.  Viggo Mortensen landed the SAG nomination so he should be the front runner, but I would never count out Tom Hanks (Sully).  Joel Edgerton gives a quieter performance in Loving but it could just be what the academy is looking for this year, based on the films subject matter.  And could you imagine if Ryan Reynolds were to sneak in for Deadpool!

 

BEST ACTRESS

  • Emma Stone * La La Land
  • Natalie Portman * Jackie
  • Amy Adams * Arrival
  • Meryl Streep * Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Taraji P. Henson* Hidden Figures

This is the hardest major category to predict.  I mean, Emma Stone and Natalie Portman are absolute locks and are the two who will be fighting it out for the win.  We know that for sure, but from there it is a complete toss up.    Amy Adams is a favourite of the academy so it is hard to bet against her, but she isn’t the lock you would expect at this point.  Meryl Streep is always getting nominated and she is fantastic in Jenkins and should get her 19th nomination.  Her speech at the Golden Globes helped her case.  Considering we can pretty much expect to see black actors finally do well, I am giving my 5th slot prediction to Henson in Hidden Figures a film I feel will do very well with academy.  Of course, the same can be said for Ruth Negga for Loving, though I get the feeling that film is a bit less loved.  Annette Bening is always a fav with the voting members and 20th Century Women seems to be doing well.  Emily Blunt got in at the SAG awards shockingly, for the poorly received by all The Girl on the Train so she could sneak in, though I don’t see it happening.  If it was up to me Isabelle Huppert’s brilliant work in Elle would take that 5th spot.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Mahershala Ali * Moonlight
  • Lucas Hedges * Manchester by the Sea
  • Jeff Bridges* Hell or High Water
  • Dev Patel * Lion
  • Hugh Grant* Florence Foster Jenkins

This may be the only category that is very clear cut.  The 5 names you see above are absolutely the expected 5 come Tuesday morning.  Anything else would be a real surprise, but if I had to guess a par of actors form Nocturnal Animals, Michael Shannon and Aaron Taylor Johnson, are the ones who shock the world.  I don’t see anything touching the 5 though.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Viola Davis* Fences
  • Michelle Williams* Manchester by the Sea
  • Naomi Harris * Moonlight
  • Octavia Spencer * Hidden Figures
  • Nicole Kidman* Lion

This is a fairly straight forwards race as well.  Viola Davis is winning and that is end of the discussion.  The only possibility of stopping her is Michelle Williams, so they are both in obviously.  Naomi Harris is brilliant in Moonlight and I would be jaw dropped if she didn’t get a nomination.  Hidden Figures is going to do very well TRUST ME and Spencer is going to be a part of that.  Nicole Kidman seems to have the 5th spot locked up, but there is an outside chance that Greta Gerwig sneaks in for 20th Century Women.

 

BEST ORIN GAL SCREENPLAY

  • Manchester by the Sea
  • La La Land
  • Hell or High Water
  • The Lobster
  • Jackie

Manchester by the Sea and La La Land are going to be Best Picture nominees so you can rest assured they will make it on here.  Even if Hell or High Water misses the top category you can expect to see it here as the screenplay is truly the strongest part of the film.  The last 2 spots are pretty much between 3 films I think.  The Lobster seems like it will have a damn good shot at getting in so I am calling it to take the 4th spot.  From there Jackie and 20th Century Women, duke it out, over which film is more well liked with the voters.  Zootopia could fill the usual animated film spot on here but that seems less likely this year and Captain Fantastic may be more popular with voters than I am giving it credit for but I am guessing not.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Moonlight
  • Arrival
  • Hidden Figures
  • Fences
  • Deadpool

Moonlight is the absolute lock here for the win and nothing at all will stop that, I assure you.  Hidden Figures should be a huge hit and I can’t see it missing here.  Arrival seems like an obvious choice but it could miss, however I still believe it will make it.  Fences seems like the kind of movie the academy will love and that should help it land here.  Now we come to the 5th slot.  Lion is getting a lot of love so far, but I don’t see it landing in the screenplay categories.   Nocturnal Animals landed at the WGA and should be a contender here.  Loving also got a WGA nomination but in Original Screenplay (same as Moonlight).  However, I am going to predict that the real WGA shocker, Deadpool will land a shock nomination here, because I think we are underestimating its love.

 

 

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Damien Chazelle* La La Land
  • Barry Jenkins* Moonlight
  • Kenneth Lonergan* Manchester by the Sea
  • Denis Villeneuve *Arrival
  • Garth Davis* Lion

This is a tough category to predict.  Damien Chazelle is the clear front runner right now and there is no way he misses.  The same can be said for Jenkins and Lonergan, who’s movies are to strong to miss here.  Denis Villeneuve seems like a logical choice but they academy is known to be a bit cold towards sci-fi sometimes.  The 5th spot is an absolute toss up.  Mel Gibson could be rewarded and forgiven and land a spot for Hacksaw Ridge.  Martin Scorsese is always a possibility but Silence really isn’t making much nose.  Denzel Washington is very loved by the academy and could be a double nominee for his work on Fences.  I am going to go with outsider Garth Davis though, as I feel Lion is really getting a lot of love.

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • La La Land
  • Moonlight
  • Arrival
  • Silence
  • Hacksaw Ridge

I would say the first 4 movies are absolute locks here.  The 5th slot is a bit more open, with everything from Nocturnal Animals, Lion and Jackie being tossed around.  My guess is Hacksaw Ridge picks up some love here.

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Jackie
  • La La Land
  • Hidden Figures
  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Fantastic Beasts

Jackie and La La Land are absolute locks.  Jenkins is not far off.  Hidden Figures should see its love spread over to here.  And they always like to give one spot to popular movie so expect Fantastic Beasts to land here.  Possible spoiler is Silence.

 

BEST FILM EDITING

  • La La Land
  • Moonlight
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Jackie

This is a tough one this year.  The 3 big movies, Moonlight, Manchester and La La Land will surely land.  From there anything from Hell or High Water to Jungle Book could land.  I am going with Jackie and Hacksaw but really, I have no clue.

 

BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIR

  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Deadpool
  • A Man Called Ove

Florence is for sure, that I can tell you.  Deadpool will fill the void of popular movie that gets in, knocking out Star Trek and Suicide Squad.  The last spot is either Jackie or A Man Called Ove and I am picking the later even though I have never seen it.

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • La La Land
  • Jackie
  • Arrival
  • Silence
  • Fantastic Beasts

Another tough to predict category, however I do believe these five have the strongest chance.

 

BEST SCORE

  • La La Land
  • Moonlight
  • Lion
  • Jackie
  • Rouge One

Those first 4 you can expect to be on the ballot.  The 5th slot I am going with Star Wars cause it usually does well in this category

 

BEST SONG

  • Audition (The Fools Who Dream) * La La Land
  • City of Stars* La La Land
  • How Far Ill Go* Moana
  • Running* Hidden Figures
  • I Can’t Stop This Feeling* Trolls

La La Land will do nicely here, as it should because both the two predicted songs are big parts of the movie.  They love to celebrate Disney here so expect something from Moana to get it.  Spot 4 I am guessing with Hidden Figures getting more love.  And I just can’t see the academy passing up nominated Justin Timberlake, who I believe will one day host the damn thing.

 

BEST SOUND EDITING

  • Rouge One
  • La La Land
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Silence
  • Arrival

I could see Sully or Jungle Book sneaking in, but I would be rather surprised if this wasn’t the line up.

 

BEST SOUND MIXING

  • La La Land
  • Rouge One
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Sully
  • Patriots Day

Most people have Arrival taking the 5th spot, I think Patriots day will sneak in though for its superb sound work.   Big spoiler here could be Deadpool.

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Jungle Book
  • Rouge One
  • Dr. Strange
  • Fantastic Beast
  • Arrival

Jungle Book is absolutely stunning visually and should have zero issue landing here.  Star Wars always places here and that isn’t going to chance this year.  Dr. Strange should beat out Civil War for the superhero movie spot.  Fantastic Beasts will continue the Harry Potter tradition.  Arrival is the small but amazing slot.  This line up seems un-beatable.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Zootopia
  • Finding Dory
  • Moana
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • My Life as a Zucchini

Expect Disney to dominate here with all three of their films locks for a nomination.  Kubo was very well received critically and should take a spot with easy.  The 5th slot is where they like to surprise us usually, so I am thinking Trolls and Sing are taking a back seat.  The Red Turtle find its way on here.  Heck what would be more surprising than an R rated comedy like Sausage Party landing, amongst the cute and cuddly.  However I am going to pick the most bizarre name on here, My Life as a Zucchini to take the WTF spot.

 

The last few categories are pure guess work for me

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Toni Erdmann
  • The Salesman
  • A Man Called Ove
  • Tanna
  • My Life as a Zucchini

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY

  • O.J Made in America
  • Gleason
  • 13th
  • I am Not Your Negro
  • The Ivory Game

OJ is the biggest lock here and rightfully so.

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

  • Piper
  • Pearl
  • Inner Workings
  • Once Upon a Line
  • The Head Vanishes

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • The White Helmets
  • Joe’s Violin
  • Extremis
  • Watani: My Homeland

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

  • Nocturne in Black
  • Time Code
  • The Way of Tea
  • Sing (Mindenki)
  • The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy
About Dave Bril
I am just a simple man who loves to watch movies, be them good or bad, I just simply enjoy the thrill of watching a movie on the big screen.

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